For my American readers, happy Independence Day, celebrating 250 years. On a special day like this, what better review to post than one on the great American pastime, baseball? Baseball fans have spent the last decade learning a whole new language of numbers, and Keith Law’s Smart Baseball was one of the first books to explain why that shift mattered. His look at the limits of traditional stats and the rise of better ones still feels sharp years later. It’s a clear, balanced guide to how modern evaluation really works.
Title/Author:
“Smart Baseball:
The Story behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are
Running It, and the Right Way to Think about Baseball” by Keith Law
Rating:
4 of 5 stars (very
good)
Review:
Fans who have
followed baseball statistics over the last 10 to 15 years have watched both the
volume of numbers and the types of metrics evolve. Keith Law’s Smart
Baseball, published in 2017, offers a clear, timely accounting of why
traditional statistics often fail to tell the full story of a player’s hitting,
pitching, or fielding ability, which newer metrics were gaining traction, and
what the future might hold.
Much of what
Law predicted has come to pass, most notably the rise of Statcast and its now‑familiar
measurements like launch angle and exit velocity. Drawing on his experience in
scouting, analytics, and front‑office work, Law presents a balanced view of how
modern evaluation works. Unlike Moneyball—which he still considers the
gold standard for introducing analytics—Law doesn’t demean scouting. Instead,
he shows scouting and analytics as complementary departments working toward the
same goal: finding the best players. He acknowledges the old scouting tropes of
“gut feelings” and a player’s “look,” but focuses on how scouting has advanced
rather than criticizing its past.
Law’s sharpest
critiques come early, where he explains why certain traditional
statistics—batting average, RBIs, pitcher wins, and saves—are poor indicators
of actual skill. He ranges from “still useful, but less important” (batting
average) to “essentially useless” (wins and saves). Reading this years after
publication, I found myself nodding along; I’ve grown accustomed to the
“better” stats he champions. Had I read it in 2017, I probably would have been
yelling at the pages defending some of those old standbys. Except wins—I agreed
with Law on that one long ago.
When he turns
to advanced metrics, Law is equally fair. From straightforward ones like OPS
(on‑base percentage plus slugging) to more complex measures like FIP (Fielding
Independent Pitching, similar to ERA but based only on events a pitcher can
control), he explains why each offers a more accurate picture of performance
while also noting where they fall short.
Despite the
title, Smart Baseball isn’t a lecture demanding agreement. It’s an
accessible, often humorous guide to how modern baseball analysis works. I
laughed every time Law used “Joey Bagodonuts” to illustrate a point. Details
like that—and the clarity of Law’s explanations—make this a worthwhile read for
any baseball fan, no matter how long ago it was published.
